中国多家体育品牌被GMT做空 安踏(02020.HK)大跌近

文章正文
发布时间:2018-06-15 12:50

中国多家体育品牌被GMT做空 安踏(02020.HK)大跌近6%

2018-06-15 10:32来源:港股那点事公司

原标题:中国多家体育品牌被GMT做空 安踏(02020.HK)大跌近6%

格隆汇14日讯,近期做空机构频频出手,继5月底Blue Orca做空新秀丽、昨日浑水做空好未来后,其实6月12日做空机构GMT也发了一份做空报告,只是这次的做空对象是中国多家体育品牌。

做空报告称,自2005年以来,在上市的16家中国体育用品公司中,已经有9家被证实是骗子,全部来自福建,不幸的是,其他7家公司中,包括安踏(02020.HK)、特步(01368.HK)和361度(01361.HK)等,这些公司与已经被证实是骗子的公司存在诸多相同的特征。GMT建议卖出或回避这些公司。

做空报告重点提到了安踏,称17年公司的营业利润是有史以来第三高。GMT称安踏利润率难以置信,认为安踏要么是世界最好的体育用品公司,要么就是个骗子公司,GMT称他更倾向于认为安踏是个骗子公司,认为安踏只值10港元。GMT同时也称,即便安踏是世界上最好的体育用品公司,目前安踏34倍的估值也是很高了。

今日体育用品股全线大跌,其中李宁(02331.HK)和安踏(02020.HK)目前跌幅超5%。

安踏(02020.HK)目前的价格为46.25港元,和GMT的目标价10港元相比,还有近80%的下跌空间。

报告还称,裕元相对干净,宝胜会计上有些违规,李宁虚增了2011年以来的营收,中国动向虚增了2011年以来的利润,361度虚增利润,特步操纵了利润......

附做空报告重点摘要:

Nine out of the sixteen Chinese sportswear companies listed since 2005 have turned out to be frauds, all of them from Fujian. Their financials shared a number of characteristics which are rarely exhibited by other listed companies. The most obvious giveaway is that past frauds were more profitable than sector global leaders, such as Nike. Unfortunately, of the seven remaining companies, Anta, Xtep and 361 Degrees share these fraud- like traits, and also come from Fujian. Indeed, Anta’s FY17 operating margin is the third highest ever recorded in the sector; the other nine in the top ten turned out to be frauds. SELL or AVOID all three.

自2005年以来上市的16家中国运动服装公司中,有9家已经被证实有欺诈行为(都是骗子),所有这些公司都来自福建。他们的财务状况有许多特征,而这些特征很少在其他上市公司中存在。最明显造假之处在于,过去的这些造假公司显示比耐克等行业全球领军企业更赚钱。不幸的是,在剩下的7家公司中,安踏、Xtep和361度都有类似的欺诈行为,他们也来自福建。的确,安踏17财年营业利润率是该行业有史以来第三高的营业利润率;而排名前10名中的另外9家都被证明曾造假。应该卖出或回避这三家公司。

Prone to fraud

There have been nine confirmed frauds in and around the Chinese sportswear sector over the past ten years; all of them from Fujian, the centre of China’s corporate fraud epidemic. Only seven remain, the largest of which is Anta Sports, the world’s most profitable mass-market sportswear company. China’s sportswear market has become increasingly dominated by foreign brands, such as Nike, which have taken share from domestic players, in particular Xtep and 361 Degrees. Anta’s domestic brand has also lost share but offset it by buying the local franchise of foreign brands such as Fila.

过去十年来,中国运动服装行业内外共发生9起欺诈行为; 他们都来自福建,这是中国企业诈骗疫情的中心。剩下的七个运动品牌中,其中最大的是安踏体育,安踏体育是全球最赚钱的大众市场运动服装公司。但在中国运动服装市场已经越来越多地受外国品牌(如耐克)的主导下,安踏,尤其是Xtep和361度也在逐步失去国内市场份额,但安踏通过购买菲拉等国外品牌的当地特许权抵消了它的份额。

While Xtep and 361 have reported deteriorating profitability in line with lost market share, Anta has somehow gone from strength to strength.

尽管特步和361的报告称,随着市场份额的下降,盈利能力不断下降,但安踏却不知何故越来越强大了。

Telling fake from fabulous

Companies faking sales always report super-normal profitability, higher even than global leaders. This should be a fairly obvious red flag but it’s always explained away with half-truths. Frauds also display large amounts of non-production assets (mainly cash), generate excess capital, record small inventories and large prepayments. The chances of these characteristics appearing in one set of financials is extremely rare, being replicated by less than 1% of all listed companies but they are shared by all of our past sportswear frauds. Unfortunately, three of our seven remaining sportswear companies have almost identical characteristics to past frauds: Anta, 361 Degrees and Xtep. It’s probably no coincidence that these three also come from Fujian.

伪造销售的公司的报告总是显示出超正常的盈利能力,甚至比行业全球领先品牌还要高。这应该是一个相当明显的危险信号。欺诈还会显示大量的非生产性资产(主要是现金),产生超额资本,记录少量库存和大额预付款项。不幸的是,剩下的7家运动服装公司中,有3家与过去的欺诈行公司有着几乎相同的上述的特征:安踏、361度和Xtep。这三家也来自福建,这可能不是巧合。

Myth busting

Anta, Xtep and 361 are somehow able to record more than double the operating margins of global leaders when charging just 25% of the price. Anta’s FY17 operating margin is the third highest ever recorded by a sportswear company; the other nine highest recorded margins were all frauds. Super-normal profitability is supposedly due to superior franchise management, in-house production, a move into high-end and being China centric. None of these reasons are convincing to us. It’s possible that sales are being fabricated, distribution channels stuffed, or costs held off-balance sheet.

安踏、Xtep和361在价格仅为大品牌25%的情况下,他们是如何做到营业利润率在大品牌的两倍以上。安踏的17财年营业利润率是运动服装公司有史以来第三高的营业利润率;排名前十的其他9个最高纪录公司的利润率都被证实是欺诈。他们的解释是:超常的盈利能力应该归功于卓越的特许经营管理、内部生产、进军高端市场和以中国为中心。但这些理由都不能让我们信服。销售可能是伪造的,分销渠道有可能饱和,或者成本是在资产负债表外的。

Fake or fabulous?

Of the three companies over which we have concerns, Anta is by far the largest. It is either the world’s best-run sportswear company or a fraud. Even if it’s the former, we wouldn’t pay 34x trailing PER for a weak brand operating in a cut-throat industry.

在我们所关注的三家公司中,安踏是迄今为止规模最大的。它要么是世界上经营最好的运动服装公司,要么就是存在欺诈造假行为。即使是前者,我们也不会为一个在残酷的行业中经营的弱势品牌支付34倍的PE。

Unfortunately, there are reasons to think Anta is more fake than fabulous: it is unusually profitable despite low selling prices; there are inconsistencies between its Fila sales in China and the royalty receipts reported by its brand-owner in Korea; and it continues to raise excess capital despite huge cash balances and free cash inflows. If we’re right, there’s likely 80% downside to our target price of HK$10/share. SELL either way.

不幸的是,我们有理由认为安踏更倾向于是在欺诈:

尽管价格很低,但它的利润却异常丰厚;

在中国的Fila销售和其品牌所有者在韩国的版权收入之间存在不一致的地方;

尽管存在巨额现金余额和自由现金流,但它仍在继续筹集资金。

如果我们是对的,那么我们给出的目标价格是10港元,这意味着安踏很有可能会有80%的下跌。呼吁卖出。返回搜狐,查看更多

责任编辑:

声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,搜狐号系信息发布平台,搜狐仅提供信息存储空间服务。

阅读 ()

文章评论
—— 标签 ——
首页
评论
分享
Top